Kalshi had been offering several Kirk-related prediction contracts before the shooting, including whether the activist would run for political office by 2029, potential debates with white nationalist Nick Fuentes, and appearances on South Park through the character Eric Cartman. All markets were immediately removed following news of the incident around 2:20 PM ET on Wednesday.
“We are deeply saddened by today’s tragic news about Charlie Kirk,” Kalshi stated in a message to customers. The company confirmed that all trades placed after 2:20 PM ET on Wednesday would be voided and refunded to users.
The timing of Polymarket’s civil war market launch has drawn criticism from industry observers. The contract, titled “US civil war in 2025?”, appeared on the platform at approximately 5:15 PM ET Wednesday, just hours after Kirk’s death. The market asks whether the United States will enter a state of civil war by December 31, 2025, with 96.6% of the $54,348 in trading volume backing the “no” position.
According to Polymarket’s terms, the market will resolve to “yes” only if there is “wide consensus of credible reporting confirming the US is in a civil war,” specifically excluding metaphorical uses of the term.
Both platforms maintain significant ties to the Trump administration through Donald Trump Jr., who serves as an advisor to Kalshi and recently joined Polymarket in a similar capacity after his venture capital firm invested in the company. These relationships have provided prediction markets with political backing as they navigate regulatory challenges.
The Commodity Exchange Act prohibits licensed platforms from offering markets on war, terrorism, and assassinations. While Kalshi operates under U.S. regulation and must comply with these restrictions, Polymarket has historically operated outside U.S. jurisdiction, though it recently received approval to reenter the American market through the acquisition of licensed derivatives platform QCEX.
Industry critics have voiced concerns about the potential for such markets to incite violence. Some commentators argue that allowing users to profit from political unrest could create perverse incentives for bad actors to influence outcomes.
President Trump expressed condolences for Kirk’s family, calling the activist “Great, and even Legendary” and noting that “no one understood or had the Heart of the Youth in the United States of America better than Charlie.”
The incident highlights ongoing regulatory tensions surrounding prediction markets as they expand beyond traditional political betting into increasingly sensitive territory. While platforms like Kalshi face state-level challenges to their sports betting offerings, the introduction of markets on domestic conflict raises new questions about appropriate boundaries for the emerging industry.
Original story source: Kalshi Yanks Charlie Kirk Bets, Polymarket Debuts US Civil War Market
Editorial Opinion
This development represents a troubling trend in the prediction market space where platforms appear willing to capitalize on tragic events and social unrest for profit. While Kalshi demonstrated appropriate restraint by immediately removing Kirk-related markets following his assassination, Polymarket’s decision to launch a civil war contract within hours of the incident shows a concerning lack of judgment.
The timing appears opportunistic rather than analytical, potentially exploiting heightened tensions for engagement and trading volume. Such markets risk normalizing political violence and could create dangerous incentives for individuals to influence outcomes through destructive actions.
The prediction market industry must establish clearer ethical guidelines around sensitive political events, particularly those involving violence or social instability. Self-regulation will be crucial as these platforms seek broader acceptance and regulatory approval in the United States market.
