France’s gambling regulator has issued its clearest condemnation yet of prediction markets, reiterating their illegal status and warning they carry “addictive characteristics” on par with unlicensed gambling platforms.
The Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) published a strongly worded statement on 24 February, drawing explicit parallels between prediction market platforms and cryptocurrency trading while framing both as risks to a new demographic of users previously untouched by traditional gambling products.
ANJ’s Core Argument
The ANJ’s position centres on the financial incentive structures embedded in prediction markets. The regulator argues that the ability to bet on an event while also influencing its probability creates a systemic risk that extends beyond individual harm.
“Indeed, as soon as an actor can bet on an event and influence its probability, the market creates a financial incentive to provoke or accelerate negative outcomes such as performance sabotage in sports or violent actions in geopolitics.”
The regulator also took direct aim at how these platforms market themselves to new audiences. Rather than acknowledging the gambling nature of the product, prediction market operators have positioned their services as investment tools, targeting users who would not typically engage with casino games or sports betting.
“The marketing of prediction market platforms aims to attract a new demographic, previously unaffected by traditional casino games and sports betting, who view these platforms as an investment option.”
This is the regulatory crux of the dispute across Europe. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket argue they operate as financial exchanges regulated by commodity futures authorities, not gambling regulators. European regulators, the ANJ included, reject that framing entirely.
France’s History With Prediction Platforms
France was among the first European jurisdictions to act against Polymarket. In December 2024, the ANJ ordered the platform to cease trading following an investigation triggered in part by the high-profile case of a French trader who reportedly earned close to $80 million betting on the 2024 US presidential election. The volume of the wager drew significant regulatory attention.
Polymarket complied by introducing a geoblocking system for French users. The platform moved to a “view-only” mode for those connecting from French IP addresses, allowing access to market data but preventing new trades. The platform is operated by Adventure One QSS, incorporated in Panama.
Today’s statement does not introduce new enforcement measures but represents a deliberate public reinforcement of that position, issued at a time when prediction markets are gaining institutional backing in the United States. The CFTC Chair Michael Sellig last week publicly endorsed the sector, stating: “Today the CFTC is taking an important step to ensure these markets have a place here in America and have the integrity, resilience and vibrancy that our derivatives markets deserve.”
A Growing European Consensus
France is not an outlier within Europe. According to the ANJ, the country joins Germany, Belgium, Romania, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Poland, Greece, Cyprus, Ukraine and Portugal in banning prediction markets outright or restricting access to them. New Zealand issued a similar ruling last week. Australia’s ACMA classified prediction markets as gambling earlier this month.
The UK has not declared them illegal but the UKGC has made clear that any platform wishing to operate would require a full gambling licence, a condition that would fundamentally undermine the financial-instrument classification platforms depend on globally. As one legal expert noted, under UK law there is no gap between gambling regulation and financial instrument regulation: a product falls under one or the other, with no unregulated space in between.
The Netherlands KSA has taken similar action. After contacting Polymarket directly about its continued availability in the Dutch market without response, the regulator ruled the platform illegal, leading to the Netherlands being added to Polymarket’s own restricted territories list. The Danish DGA has acknowledged it lacks the tools to block prediction markets unless they can be shown to specifically target Danish users, illustrating the divergence in regulatory capacity across European jurisdictions.
The Transatlantic Divide
The ANJ statement arrives as the US-Europe regulatory gap on prediction markets widens. Polymarket is now valued at $9 billion following a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in October 2025. Kalshi reported $1 billion in Super Bowl trading volume earlier this month, up 2,700% year-on-year. Both companies have expanded their US presence under CFTC oversight while facing simultaneous bans across large portions of Europe.
The contrast reflects fundamentally different regulatory philosophies. US federal regulators treat event contracts as commodity derivatives. European gambling authorities treat them as unauthorised betting. Neither side has shown willingness to converge, and with Polymarket reportedly planning to seek formal EU-wide licensing — a process that would require engaging with over a dozen individual national regulators — the path to legal European operation remains long.
For French operators and suppliers watching this space, the ANJ’s position is now unambiguous. Prediction markets remain illegal in France, the regulator intends to keep them that way, and any operator facilitating access to such platforms for French users risks criminal liability. Fines under French law can reach €200,000, with prison terms of up to seven years for organised group offences.
Source: Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ)
