Sweden’s online gambling channelisation rate fell to 84 per cent in 2025, down one percentage point from 85 per cent the year before, according to the Swedish Gambling Authority, Spelinspektionen.
The decline marks a third consecutive year the figure has slipped. It follows an identical one-point fall from 86 per cent to 85 per cent recorded in 2023. Spelinspektionen set a channelisation target of 90 per cent when Sweden re-regulated its gambling market in 2019, but the rate has stayed close to the 85 per cent mark since. The pattern echoes a wider trend across European markets, where the Dutch GGR channelisation rate dropped below 50 per cent in the first half of 2025.
Channelisation measures the share of gambling activity flowing through licensed operators rather than the unlicensed market. A persistent gap below target points to demand the regulated market is not capturing, with direct consequences for tax receipts and player protection coverage.
“Measurements in recent years indicate a relatively stable market,” said Johan Röhr, acting director general at the Swedish Gambling Authority.
In its third annual channelisation report, the regulator said the main reason players turn to unlicensed operators is self-exclusion. Players who are, or have previously been, registered with Sweden’s national self-exclusion portal Spelpaus cited that status as the leading driver of unlicensed play. Spelinspektionen added that players also perceive better winning chances at unlicensed sites, or want access to games not offered in the licensed market.
Online casino drags the headline rate down
The report confirmed a continuing split between verticals. Sports betting recorded a channelisation rate of 96 per cent in 2025, while online casino sat at 81 per cent. The pattern of sports betting outperforming casino has held across recent reports, and the lower casino figure is the heavier weight on the overall rate. Sweden’s online sector had earlier driven 0.5 per cent gambling revenue growth in Q3 2025.
The vertical gap matters for operators weighing where unlicensed competition bites hardest. A 15-point spread between the two products suggests the leakage problem is concentrated in casino, where product range restrictions and self-exclusion enforcement give unlicensed sites their strongest pull.
Two methods, two different answers
Spelinspektionen calculates channelisation using two methods, and the 2025 results diverged sharply. A player survey produced a rate of 89 per cent. An estimate based on turnover measured through internet traffic produced 78 per cent. The regulator publishes its final figure as the average of the two, which is how the 84 per cent headline is derived.
The 11-point gap between the two indicators underlines how much the reported rate depends on methodology. The survey, which relies on what players say, runs well above the traffic-based estimate of where money is actually moving.
Operator estimates tell a wider story
Swedish operator ATG, which last week named Anna Romboli as its incoming chief executive, publishes its own channelisation estimates. Its most recent report in March put the fourth-quarter rate at between 73 per cent and 84 per cent, up from a range of 69 per cent to 82 per cent in the final quarter of 2024. The appointment followed a period of upheaval, with the previous ATG CEO stepping down amid a revenue decline and tax hike.
ATG’s range sits at or below the regulator’s figure at every point, a reminder that no single channelisation number is definitive. The operator’s upper bound matches Spelinspektionen’s headline, while its lower bound falls well beneath it.
The persistent shortfall against the 90 per cent target keeps pressure on Swedish policymakers. In September, the industry backed proposals from a government-appointed investigator on tackling the illegal market, measures that operators will be watching as the channelisation rate stays stuck below target heading into 2026.
Source: Spelinspektionen
