Meta Platforms is building a prediction market application internally codenamed Arena, with CEO Mark Zuckerberg directing a small team to develop a product that would compete with Kalshi and Polymarket, The New York Times reported, citing unnamed employees familiar with the project.
Points first, real money later
The early version of Arena is expected to operate on a points-based system rather than real-money trading. One employee told the Times that a transition to actual money markets could be considered further down the line, but no such decision has been made.
The product is described as a standalone app at this stage, though observers believe Meta could eventually integrate prediction features into its broader platform ecosystem across Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp.
Meta’s second attempt in the space
Arena would be Meta’s second entry into prediction markets. The company launched Forecast in 2020 through its New Product Experimentation unit, a platform that let users “bet” on outcomes using non-monetary tokens. Forecast was shut down in 2022 after failing to attract a meaningful user base.
The renewed push comes as prediction markets have expanded rapidly, with platforms offering contracts on elections, sports, financial indicators, and global events. The sector has drawn attention from financial institutions and technology companies looking for new digital engagement surfaces.
Distribution as the differentiator
If Meta moves forward, it enters with advantages that no existing prediction market platform can match. The company’s market capitalisation exceeds $1 trillion and it holds tens of billions in cash, giving it the capital to scale quickly. More significantly, Meta’s network spans billions of active users across its apps, a distribution base that dwarfs anything Kalshi, Polymarket, or any other specialist platform has built.
That scale is precisely what makes the potential entry consequential. Prediction platforms have so far operated as niche financial products or speculative communities. Embedding similar mechanics into a social media environment used by billions could change the audience entirely.
Rivals have already begun forming partnerships that anticipate this kind of convergence. Polymarket works with X, while Kalshi has integrated with xAI technologies, reflecting broader moves to tie prediction markets to social and AI infrastructure.
Regulatory and competitive context
The prediction market sector faces growing regulatory scrutiny in multiple jurisdictions. Malta has moved to establish the first EU framework for prediction markets, and Spain has blocked both Kalshi and Polymarket over licensing non-compliance. Brazil banned the category outright earlier this year. In the United States, where both Kalshi and Polymarket are most active, the regulatory picture remains in flux.
Meta’s points-based starting model may be a deliberate attempt to sidestep that regulatory complexity. A non-monetary system would likely face fewer federal hurdles in the United States and could be launched without the commodities or gambling licences that real-money prediction contracts require. Whether that framing holds under scrutiny depends on how regulators interpret the product once it is live.
Arena’s development also revives a personal rivalry. Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, who sued Zuckerberg over the origins of Facebook and reached a settlement in 2008, now operate Gemini Space Station and its prediction-market platform. Their presence in the space puts them, once again, in direct competition with the Meta founder.
What comes next
No launch timeline has been reported. The project is at an early stage, and Meta has a history of shelving internal experiments that do not reach sufficient traction, as Forecast demonstrated. The difference this time is executive attention: Zuckerberg’s direct involvement signals this is not a peripheral skunkworks project. Whether Arena reaches a public launch, and in what form, will depend on whether the internal team can build something users return to, which is the problem Forecast never solved.
Source: The New York Times
