Brazil’s regulated betting market paid R$8.7bn in federal taxes between January and July 2026, up 76.86% on the R$4.9bn collected over the same seven months of 2025.
The running total, worth about £1.2bn at current exchange rates, sits R$1.25bn short of the R$9.95bn the sector paid across the whole of 2025, with five months of collections still to come. Receipts have climbed steadily through the year, with earlier 2026 collections already running 86% ahead of the previous year.
Growth on a much bigger base
The market opened on 1 January 2025 under Law 14.790, which created a licensing regime for fixed-odds betting and online gaming. The Ministry of Finance licensed 63 operators at launch and has since issued 85 licences covering 187 authorised sites.
Operator revenue reached R$36.9bn in 2025, drawn from around 25 million players spending an average of R$123 a month, according to Federal Revenue Service data. Betano, owned by Kaizen Gaming, held about 23% of the market at the end of 2025, and the top 10 brands together accounted for 68.8%. bet365, Superbet and Entain’s Sportingbet sit in the same leading group. Brazil now ranks as the fourth largest betting market in the world by online traffic.
The 2026 figures come off that base rather than from a standing start, which is what separates this year’s numbers from the first-year comparison. The regime was still onboarding licensees through the early months of 2025, so part of the 76.86% increase reflects a full market operating for a full period.
The rate rises every year to 2028
Operators pay tax on gross gaming revenue (GGR), and the rate is on a fixed upward path. Complementary Law 224, which came out of bill PLP 128/2025 and was signed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in December 2025, raises the GGR levy from 12% to 13% in 2026, 14% in 2027 and 15% from 2028. The 2026 rate took effect after Brazil’s constitutional 90-day waiting period.
The same law directs a rising share of collected revenue to social security: 1% in 2026, 2% in 2027 and 3% in 2028. The R$8.7bn collected so far therefore reflects the lowest rate in the schedule. On flat volumes, the 2028 rate would lift federal receipts by around 15% against the 2026 level.
Tax receipts against a prohibition campaign
The money is arriving while Congress debates closing the market. Lula called for a ban on online betting platforms in April 2026, and his Workers’ Party has tabled legislation to repeal the Bets Law. An opposition bill seeking full prohibition of fixed-odds betting is before Congress ahead of October’s general election.
Advertising rules have already been tightened, including a Rio de Janeiro decree banning betting advertising in public spaces. A separate bill, PL 2,258/2026, would ban online casino gaming while leaving sports betting licensed, which would strip out a large share of operator revenue and, with it, a large share of the tax base.
The Supreme Federal Court (STF) is weighing the constitutionality of the regime in parallel, with a ruling expected in November. That timetable puts the court’s decision after the election and before the 14% rate takes effect in January.
What the number does and does not settle
The tax yield is the licensed sector’s central argument in Congress. At an average of about R$1.24bn a month across January to July, a full year on the same run rate would close near R$15bn, a figure that would place betting alongside established federal revenue lines rather than at the margins of the budget.
That argument has limits. None of the bills in Congress have been withdrawn on fiscal grounds, and the advertising restrictions passed while receipts were rising. The regime’s second year has produced the revenue case its supporters wanted. Whether it holds will be decided by the STF in November and by whichever coalition takes office after October.
Source: Receita Federal
