The Netherlands’ gambling regulator Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) has ordered prediction market platform Polymarket to cease operations in the country, threatening fines of approximately $500,000 per week for non-compliance. The regulator has specifically flagged Polymarket’s election betting markets as illegal under Dutch law, which prohibits wagering on political events.
KSA Declares Prediction Markets Illegal Under Dutch Law
The KSA issued its enforcement notice on Tuesday, citing Polymarket’s facilitation of trades on Dutch election outcomes as a clear violation of national gambling laws. The regulator stated that such markets constitute illegal gambling regardless of whether an operator holds a license.
“Prediction markets are on the rise, including in the Netherlands. These types of companies offer bets that are not permitted in our market under any circumstances, not even by license holders.”
“Besides the social risks of these kinds of predictions (for example, the potential influence on elections), we conclude that this constitutes illegal gambling. Anyone without a KSA license has no business in our market. This also applies to these new gambling platforms.” — Ella Seijsener, Director of Licensing and Supervision, KSA
While the KSA has authority to impose weekly fines of approximately $500,000, it confirmed any penalty would be capped at two weeks, totalling €840,000 (approximately $993,000). It also warned that turnover-related fines could follow at a later stage.
Dutch Elections Generated Millions in Trading Volume
Polymarket’s markets around last year’s Dutch elections attracted significant global and domestic trading activity. The platform’s “Next Prime Minister” market recorded more than $16 million in total trades, with over $4 million placed on Rob Jetten, set to be formally installed in the coming week. Markets on coalition formation drew even greater interest. The question of which coalition would form the Dutch government attracted $58.8 million in global trading volume, though only $1 million was placed on the eventual VVD-CDA-D66 coalition. The NL Times reported that Dutch users accounted for at least $32 million of total trading volume across these markets.
Regulatory Pressure Mounts Across Europe
If Polymarket complies with the KSA order, the Netherlands would join a growing list of blocked European countries that already includes Germany, Belgium, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom. Portugal raised similar concerns over election markets last month but has not yet been added to the restricted list. The Netherlands’ new government has pledged a tougher approach to gambling enforcement, including action against unlicensed operators and restrictions on advertising. The KSA itself has expressed reservations about the proposed advertising ban, with Chair Michel Groothuizen warning:
“The consequence of the proposed advertising ban could be that players are pushed further away from the regulated market.”
Polymarket’s Track Record in Restricted Jurisdictions
Even in officially blocked countries, users frequently access Polymarket through VPNs and similar workarounds. The platform has previously faced accusations of encouraging circumvention of geo-restrictions. Australia’s gambling regulator blocked the site after accusing Polymarket of targeting residents through social media despite listing the country as restricted. The company has also reportedly increased outreach efforts toward users in China, where the platform is prohibited under the country’s strict gambling regulations. Whether Polymarket will formally block Dutch users or contest the KSA’s enforcement action has not yet been confirmed.
Source: Kansspelautoriteit (KSA)
