Gibraltar has granted its first prediction market licence, making it the first jurisdiction in Europe to formally regulate the vertical, Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry Nigel Feetham told parliament on Tuesday.
The licence was issued to Predict Street Ltd on 26 March under the Gibraltar 2005 Gambling Act. The operator’s website, Predictstreet.io, describes itself as the official prediction market partner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup and shows a countdown to launch on 9 April. The platform is powered by ADI Chain, an Abu Dhabi-based blockchain infrastructure provider.
A Regulatory First for Europe
Feetham framed the move as evidence of Gibraltar’s capacity to act quickly on emerging verticals, with the licence issued under existing legislation while a new Gambling Act remains pending.
“We expect this to be a substantial area of growth for Gibraltar. This represents record timing for the issuing of a regulatory licence in Gibraltar,” the minister said.
Gibraltar is the first European jurisdiction to license a prediction markets operator outright. Malta is the only other territory moving in the same direction: on 26 March, Malta’s Economy Minister Silvio Schembri said the island was “actively exploring the emerging field of prediction markets” and working toward a legislative framework that would allow the vertical to develop “responsibly and at scale.” No licence has been issued there yet.
Elsewhere in Europe, the picture is considerably more hostile. Germany and the Netherlands maintain strict prohibitions on novelty markets within sports betting. France and the Netherlands have both blocked Polymarket, the US-based prediction market leader, from operating. Ismail Vali, president of RegTech firm Gaming Compliance International, has noted that European users continue to access prediction markets through unofficial channels despite formal bans, suggesting latent demand that licensed operators would be positioned to capture.
The contrast with the US is instructive. American regulators have moved to challenge prediction markets through the courts, with Nevada suing Coinbase over unlicensed betting and restraining orders issued against Polymarket. Gibraltar’s approach points in the opposite direction.
Tax Pressure Drives Regulatory Diversification
The timing of the prediction market push is not coincidental. Gibraltar’s gaming sector, which employs around 3,500 people and accounts for roughly one-third of the territory’s tax revenue, faces a severe structural challenge from the UK’s Remote Gaming Duty increase to 40%, which came into force on 1 April. Because most Gibraltar-based operators primarily serve the UK market, the combined effect of Gibraltar’s own corporate taxes and the new UK duty is expected to push effective tax rates for some operators to between 80% and 100% of profit.
Feetham acknowledged the threat directly in parliament, noting that he had taken personal responsibility for promoting Gibraltar’s regulatory offering since the UK tax increases were announced.
“Since the introduction of the recent UK gambling duty increases, I have taken a more direct responsibility for promoting Gibraltar’s regulatory offering,” he said.
The minister had flagged the danger in December, describing it as “an issue of vital importance to Gibraltar and one that may directly and indirectly affect our public revenues.”
Licensing prediction markets represents one lever in a broader effort to attract new licence categories and revenue streams that fall outside the UK gambling duty framework. The vertical’s blockchain infrastructure, in the case of Predict Street via ADI Chain, also points to a deliberate positioning of Gibraltar as a hub for technology-enabled gambling products.
What Comes Next
Gibraltar said further details on its prediction market regulatory approach would be released in the coming days. Whether the licensing framework will be formalised under the new Gambling Act, or whether further operators will be able to apply under the 2005 legislation in the interim, remains to be clarified.
For operators watching Europe’s regulatory map on prediction markets, Gibraltar’s move sets a precedent. The question is whether Malta’s stated interest converts to an issued licence before the 2026 FIFA World Cup window opens, and whether other jurisdictions facing similar fiscal pressures follow Gibraltar’s lead.
For context on the UK tax changes driving Gibraltar’s urgency, see UK confirms major gambling tax increases: online casino to 40%, sports betting to 25% and the downstream operator impact covered in Evoke’s response to the UK budget tax hikes. On the broader European regulatory debate around prediction markets, Massachusetts AG’s lawsuit against Kalshi illustrates the contrast with transatlantic enforcement trends.
Source: iGaming Business
