Brazil has declared prediction markets illegal and ordered the immediate blocking of platforms operating in the country, with telecoms regulator Anatel shutting down 27 sites including Kalshi and Polymarket as of April 24, 2026.
Finance Minister Dario Durigan and presidential chief of staff Miriam Belchior announced the decision at a press conference in Brasília, citing consumer protection and the absence of any legal framework permitting the activity.
National Monetary Council closes the derivatives door
The National Monetary Council (CMN) adopted a resolution on Thursday defining which underlying assets may be used in derivatives contracts. The resolution explicitly excludes sporting events, virtual online gaming events, and real or virtual events of a political, electoral, social, cultural, or entertainment nature. Only contracts tied to pre-defined economic and financial benchmarks — price indices, interest rates, and exchange rates — remain permissible.
The CMN resolution effectively removes the legal basis prediction market platforms had used to argue their products qualified as financial instruments rather than betting.
Regis Dudena, Secretary of Economic Reforms, explained the sequence of events.
“We began to see the growth of prediction markets, which look a lot like betting, but not as defined by law. Predictions had all the characteristics of betting, but were presented as a security risk, prompting a request for clarification on what constituted a derivative in the CMN’s view.”
The CMN’s response was to exclude prediction contracts from the scope of permitted market offerings entirely.
Government: the product is not eligible for regulation
Durigan was categorical that prediction platforms violated the gambling law passed by Congress and would not be permitted to operate under any licensing framework.
“The product offered by these platforms is not eligible for regulation. The blocking action is due to non-compliance with the legislation. This market is not provided for in the legislation, and it will not be permitted for anyone to bet on whether it will rain tomorrow or not.”
Dudena framed the broader policy position: Brazil’s regulatory framework was designed to organise and control betting tied to sporting events and online games. Anything outside that scope is prohibited.
“This product that was being presented as a security carried the potentially very destructive features of gambling.”
Belchior reinforced the consumer protection rationale behind the move.
“Now, we are announcing that prediction markets will not be allowed in Brazil. We do not want to expose Brazilians to risks and financial losses. Our goal is to prevent the consolidation of a new, uncontrolled betting market through predictions.”
Anatel enforcement already underway
Anatel began blocking platforms ahead of the press conference. Durigan initially cited 28 blocked sites; the Finance Ministry subsequently revised the figure to 27. Websites for Kalshi and Polymarket were inaccessible in Brazil by early Friday afternoon local time.
The minister confirmed enforcement would continue against platforms that attempt to circumvent the block. Since Brazil launched its regulated online gambling market in January 2025, 39,000 unlicensed betting sites have already been shut down. The government said it would apply the same approach to prediction market operators.
“Platforms are already being blocked to prevent uncontrolled growth and risks to the population. Currently, 28 have already been blocked, and others that emerge will suffer the same fate.”
Context: Brazil’s accelerating regulatory posture
The prediction market ban is the latest move in a broader regulatory tightening that has defined Brazil’s gambling market since regulated online betting launched in January 2025. The Lula administration has consistently linked the spread of unregulated gambling products to household indebtedness, a concern that has driven both the initial regulation of sports betting and subsequent enforcement actions against unlicensed operators.
Brazil’s Senate is separately advancing a total gambling advertising ban bill, reflecting pressure from legislators who regard the growth of betting as a social problem requiring further intervention. The government has also imposed a graduated tax increase on operator revenue, with rates scheduled to rise through 2028.
Internationally, Brazil’s position aligns with a number of other regulators that have moved against prediction markets in recent months. Australia’s ACMA and New Zealand have both taken action to classify or restrict event-based prediction contracts, while US state regulators have pursued litigation against platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket.
For prediction market operators with global ambitions, Brazil’s ruling removes Latin America’s largest economy from their addressable market and signals that the financial product framing they have used in other jurisdictions will face continued regulatory scrutiny.
Source: Reuters, Brazilian Finance Ministry
