Light & Wonder president and CEO Matt Wilson called on the gaming industry to act collectively against prediction markets on 19 May, warning the sector poses a direct threat to igaming’s US expansion and competes for the same finite consumer spending.
Wilson spoke at the 47th annual Gaming Conference hosted by the Nevada Society of Certified Public Accountants at Circa Las Vegas, in a fireside discussion moderated by Rick Arpin, managing partner and gaming leader at KPMG.
Igaming targets missed
Wilson told the audience that Light & Wonder set out a long-term EBITDA growth plan in 2022, projecting an increase from $900 million to $1.4 billion, with the central assumption that three major US states would legalise online casino gaming by 2025.
“We were 100% wrong on that. We haven’t had a single incremental state. We thought igaming was about to go into this massive way of expansion, but today seven states have igaming.” — Matt Wilson, president and CEO, Light & Wonder
The misjudgement has not altered his conviction on direction of travel. Wilson said fiscal pressure is beginning to move state legislatures that have historically resisted gaming expansion, pointing to regulatory activity around skill-based gaming in Pennsylvania and Virginia as evidence of shifting political conditions.
“You’re starting to see a big uptick in the idea of further expansion, whether it’s igaming or historical horse racing or land-based games. There’s a lot of activity happening on all fronts.” — Matt Wilson, president and CEO, Light & Wonder
Prediction markets: a direct competitive threat
Wilson’s sharpest remarks addressed prediction markets, which rose to prominence at G2E in October 2025 and have continued to accelerate since. He said the growth of Kalshi and Polymarket — platforms that now carry double the combined market capitalisation of DraftKings and FanDuel — represents a material threat to igaming, not a parallel market.
“This came out of nowhere and was the talk of G2E. It has gone parabolic over the last six months. Kalshi and Polymarket have double the market value of DraftKings and FanDuel. That’s amazing and brutal. People are playing prediction markets and that’s coming from somewhere. It’s not like there’s an infinite discretionary dollar for the casino.” — Matt Wilson, president and CEO, Light & Wonder
Light & Wonder has no current exposure to prediction markets, but Wilson acknowledged the boundary between the two sectors is narrowing. He said developers are actively working on five-reel slot-style products derived from prediction market contracts, a development he views as a potential threat to igaming’s regulatory position.
“We don’t have a dog in the fight, but we play in the igaming space and there’s a threat it will get there one day. We know people are working on five-reel slot machines derived off complex contracts. If it’s a no for Nevada gaming regulators, then it’s a no for us. The industry needs to get together and work collectively to figure out how to slow this juggernaut down. It’s very hard to argue it’s not illegal gaming.” — Matt Wilson, president and CEO, Light & Wonder
The call for collective action comes as the regulatory picture around prediction markets remains unresolved in most jurisdictions. Kalshi raised $300 million and expanded to more than 140 countries by late 2025, while European regulators have struggled to define the products under existing frameworks. The Danish Gambling Authority recently concluded it lacks the authority to block prediction markets absent evidence of deliberate Danish market targeting. Minnesota this week became the first US state to criminalise the operation of prediction market platforms.
Pure play strategy and content volume
Wilson also addressed Light & Wonder’s structural direction. The company has divested its lottery and platform divisions, positioning itself as a pure-play gaming content and systems supplier. He said the consolidation wave that produced diversified gaming conglomerates has reversed, and the pure-play model now constitutes a competitive advantage.
“We’ve seen in the last five years a massive unwinding of that consolidation. I’m a big believer that companies that do one thing very well can be successful. These conglomerates tried to be everything. We figured out lottery companies and gaming companies don’t belong together. There’s no synergy there.” — Matt Wilson, president and CEO, Light & Wonder
On content production, Wilson said Light & Wonder releases more than 150 batches of games per year and cautioned against any confidence in predicting which titles will perform, describing the volume strategy as a deliberate hedge against the unpredictability of individual game outcomes.
“If anyone in the industry says they know a game will be a hit, they’re lying to you. There’s safety in numbers. That’s why you put out 150 games.” — Matt Wilson, president and CEO, Light & Wonder
When asked which competitor title he most wished Light & Wonder had developed, Wilson named Aristocrat’s Dragon Link. The two companies settled their IP dispute over Dragon Train earlier this year in a settlement reported at $127.5 million and remain the dominant rivals in the global slot machine market.
Bank of America has estimated that annual US sports event contract volume could eventually reach $1.1 trillion, a figure that illustrates why the gaming industry is watching the regulatory trajectory of prediction markets with growing urgency. With igaming still confined to seven US states and no new states expected to act in the near term, the pressure on the sector from prediction market growth is set to intensify.
Source: iGaming Republic
