Polymarket has appointed a Japan-based representative to lead regulatory lobbying efforts in the country, targeting a compliant platform launch by 2030.
The platform named Mike Eidlin for the role. Eidlin currently serves as head of crypto project Jupiter in Japan, bringing existing relationships with local financial and regulatory stakeholders to the engagement.
Navigating a Grey Area
Polymarket currently enforces website blocks for Japanese users to comply with local requirements. The broader legal position for prediction markets in Japan, however, is not a flat prohibition. The sector occupies a regulatory grey area, and domestic players already operate within it. NERO YOSO runs a legal prediction platform through the LINE NERO app, while Coinbase remained accessible to Japanese users until 2023.
A Polymarket spokesperson framed the expansion effort in financial market terms:
“Polymarket has seen meaningful organic interest from users across Asia, including Japan, reflecting a broader global trend toward information markets as tools for understanding probability and uncertainty, not unlike how financial derivatives function in traditional markets. We’re always evaluating opportunities to expand access globally in compliant and locally appropriate ways and welcome dialogue with parties who share our interest in transparent, data-driven markets.”
The spokesperson’s framing of prediction markets as analogous to financial derivatives is notable given the direction of Japan’s regulatory agenda.
Japan’s Regulatory Shift
Japan’s cabinet approved a bill on 10 April 2026 to reclassify crypto assets as financial instruments under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (FIEA), moving oversight away from the Payment Services Act, which had treated digital assets primarily as payment tools. If enacted during the current Diet session, the changes take effect in fiscal 2027.
The new framework introduces a ban on insider trading in crypto assets, mandatory annual disclosures by issuers, and significantly tougher penalties for unlicensed operations — up to 10 years in prison and fines of ¥10 million (approximately $62,800), up from the current three-year maximum sentence. Businesses previously classified as crypto-asset exchange operators would be reclassified as crypto-asset dealers, placing them on a comparable regulatory footing to securities firms.
Japan’s Minister for Financial Services, Satsuki Katayama, stated the reforms aim to “expand the supply of growth capital… and ensure market fairness, transparency, and investor protection.”
For Polymarket, this trajectory cuts both ways. A clearer securities-style framework could provide a defined path to registration, but compliance costs and the FIEA’s market conduct rules would apply from the outset. Prediction markets that trade on financial or economic events could fall directly within scope.
Regulatory Headwinds Elsewhere
The Japan initiative comes as Polymarket faces active regulatory pushback in other jurisdictions. A Nevada court issued a temporary restraining order against the platform earlier this year, with the Nevada Gaming Board pursuing separate action against Coinbase over allegedly unlicensed betting activity linked to crypto prediction markets. In India, authorities moved to block local user access to Polymarket, adding to the platform’s challenges in Asia.
The pattern underlines the core tension facing prediction market operators globally: organic user demand alongside regulatory frameworks that have not caught up with the product category. Japan’s 2030 target gives Polymarket a runway to engage with the Financial Services Agency ahead of the FIEA transition, though the platform’s classification as a financial product or a gambling operation under Japanese law remains unresolved.
Prediction markets have attracted institutional backing even amid the uncertainty. <a href=”https://theigaming.eu/2025/10/09/ice-announces-strategic-investment-in-polymarket/”>ICE announced a strategic investment in Polymarket in October 2025, a move that signalled growing confidence in the sector’s long-term legitimacy. In Europe, regulators remain divided on jurisdiction: Denmark’s DGA <a href=”https://theigaming.eu/2026/02/20/dga-regulator-powerless-to-block-prediction-markets-without-danish-targeting/”>determined it lacked the authority to block prediction market activity absent clear evidence of Danish market targeting, leaving the legal position open. The Massachusetts Attorney General took a more aggressive line, <a href=”https://theigaming.eu/2025/09/13/massachusetts-attorney-general-files-lawsuit-against-kalshi-over-illegal-sports-betting-operations/”>filing suit against Kalshi over comparable product definitions.
Whether Japan follows a path of regulatory ambiguity or moves to establish a clear licensing framework for prediction markets ahead of 2030 depends in large part on how the FIEA transition shapes the FSA’s appetite for new product categories.
Source: AffPapa
