Norway has no regulatory framework for prediction markets, as volumes on the sector’s two largest platforms surpass $24bn per month and parliament moves to question whether existing gambling and financial laws are adequate.
The Norwegian parliament’s Socialist Left Party (SV) has presented a proposal calling on the government to examine whether gambling regulations should be extended to prediction markets, whether authorities need stronger monitoring powers over activity targeting Norwegian users, and whether restrictions should be considered for markets tied to elections, wars and conflicts. The proposal also raises the question of protections for younger users.
A Product That Sits Between Gambling and Finance
Prediction markets let users wager on the outcome of future events, from election results and geopolitical developments to cryptocurrency prices and sporting outcomes. The products are built around live odds and shifting probabilities, with new markets appearing continuously.
Magnus Pedersen of Gambling Addiction Norway has described the platforms as a particularly potent combination of gambling, financial speculation and constant digital stimulation. Users can move from one market to the next without interruption, with no natural stopping point between events.
“Prediction markets package speculative betting in a way that can feel more sophisticated than traditional gambling while retaining many of the same addictive features.”
Pedersen has also pointed to aggressive promotion through influencers and social media, with products that appeal to younger audiences already engaged with cryptocurrency culture. He argues the platforms reach users before they understand the potential consequences.
Insider Trading Concerns Enter the Debate
The discussion in Norway has moved beyond player protection. A person with advance knowledge of a political decision, a corporate announcement or a diplomatic development could potentially exploit that information through a prediction market wager. When transactions are conducted via cryptocurrency and participants remain difficult to identify, enforcement becomes significantly more complex.
Kjersti Aksnes Gjesdahl, who leads financial industry work at PwC Norway, has said many observers have underestimated how quickly prediction markets have become a global, cross-border phenomenon. What may appear to be a distinctly American product is already accessible to Norwegian users and fully integrated into an international ecosystem.
Gjesdahl has indicated that financial regulators and Norway’s economic crime authorities may ultimately need to assess whether existing enforcement tools are sufficient. The challenge falls across multiple domains simultaneously: gambling regulation, financial supervision and law enforcement.
Public agencies handling sensitive information may also need to review whether internal controls are adequate in an environment where privileged knowledge can be converted into profits through anonymous online markets.
Parliament Presses the Government
The SV proposal, presented this week, identifies the issue as one that extends beyond consumer protection into questions of security and market integrity. The party is pushing for an assessment of whether the existing Norwegian gambling act covers prediction market activity and whether new monitoring powers are required.
The proposal specifically flags markets linked to elections, wars and conflicts as areas requiring particular attention, alongside the question of how to handle markets that attract younger users through cryptocurrency-native interfaces and social media promotion.
No response from the government or Norway’s gambling regulator, Lotteritilsynet, has been published at this stage.
Global Market Grows Rapidly
The scale of the industry sharpens the urgency of the debate. Combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket, the two dominant platforms, rose from less than $5bn in September 2025 to approximately $24bn in April 2026, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of data from The Block. Both platforms have connections to Donald Trump Jr., and the industry’s growth has accelerated since Donald Trump returned to the White House.
For context, US legal sportsbooks handled approximately $14bn in wagers per month on average in 2025, according to the same Pew analysis.
The sector is not operating in a legal grey area everywhere. Several European countries, including France, Spain and Germany, have already moved to restrict or ban certain prediction market activities. The Danish gambling regulator, the DGA, recently concluded it lacks the powers to block prediction markets without evidence of deliberate targeting of Danish users, highlighting the jurisdictional complexity operators and regulators face across the continent.
<a href=”https://theigaming.eu/2026/02/20/dga-regulator-powerless-to-block-prediction-markets-without-danish-targeting/”>Denmark’s experience with that jurisdictional gap illustrates how quickly the issue is spreading across the Nordics. Norway’s neighbours Sweden and Finland have similarly not moved to regulate prediction markets to date, though Norwegian parliamentary pressure may accelerate the regional conversation.
Pressure Builds as the Framework Lags
The core problem for Norwegian regulators is one of categorisation. Whether prediction markets constitute gambling products, financial instruments or something requiring an entirely new framework remains unresolved. The existing Norwegian Gambling Act was designed for a different product landscape.
Until that question is answered, a rapidly expanding market continues to operate inside Norway without clear oversight obligations, consumer protection requirements or enforcement mechanisms. The SV proposal represents the first formal parliamentary push to change that. Whether the government responds with a legislative assessment, a regulatory consultation or further delay will determine how long that gap remains open.
<a href=”https://theigaming.eu/2025/09/13/norways-gambling-monopoly-remains-secure-following-general-election-results/”>Norway’s gambling monopoly structure, which survived the most recent general election intact, may also complicate any move toward a licensed prediction market framework, since Norsk Tipping operates the country’s regulated gambling market under an exclusive concession model.
Source: NRK
