Polymarket and Kalshi have restricted access for users in Ireland after the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI) threatened unlicensed prediction markets with High Court blocking orders.
Anne Marie Caulfield, chief executive of the GRAI since the regulator began operations in 2025, said on RTÉ’s This Week on July 19 that prediction markets amount to betting and fall under her remit. One of the largest platforms had already geoblocked Ireland following what she described as an “intervention” by the authority, and a second was in the process of doing so.
“And if they don’t, it’s open to us to go to the High Court,” Caulfield said.
Asked what that action would look like, she set out the mechanism.
“In the instance where they don’t do so, we can go to the High Court and get a blocking order for access to the site, and also in relation to the funding involved,” she said.
Pressed on whether the authority had threatened that action, Caulfield confirmed it.
“We have issued warning letters, yes, to that effect.”
Caulfield did not name the platforms. By July 21, Polymarket had added Ireland to its geographic restrictions list, while Kalshi already lists Ireland among 56 restricted jurisdictions in its member agreement.
Prediction markets fall under the July 1 licensing rules
Since July 1, 2026, any operator providing a remote betting or remote betting intermediary service to consumers in Ireland must hold a GRAI licence under the Gambling Regulation Act 2024. The GRAI’s position is that prediction markets offering betting activities fall within the definition of a remote betting intermediary, which places unlicensed platforms in the same enforcement category as the rest of the black market.
The measures already applied to the platforms include blocking new account registrations in Ireland and preventing existing Irish accounts from depositing funds or opening new positions.
The authority’s enforcement record is short but active. Caulfield said the GRAI has made almost 30 interventions against unlicensed sites, and in the vast majority of cases the sites withdrew from Ireland, in one instance within 35 minutes. The regulator also has several ongoing investigations into black market gambling, with potential prosecutions to follow.
Harris flagged suspicious bets in May
The scrutiny of prediction markets in Ireland predates the warning letters. In May, Tánaiste and Finance Minister Simon Harris said he would ask gardaí, regulators and government departments to examine “suspicious bets” placed on Polymarket, and that it would be prudent to check for money laundering.
“What seems to be developing at a global scale and indeed a rapid pace now is a kind of Wild West where people are placing bets in the form of cryptocurrency in a secretive, murky and unregulated manner,” Harris said.
His comments followed reports of around $1 million in trading volume on the outcome of the Dublin Central by-election, with hundreds of thousands of that placed on Gerry “The Monk” Hutch not winning a seat, which is what happened. There is no suggestion of wrongdoing by any candidate.
European regulators move in parallel
Ireland is the latest European jurisdiction to treat prediction markets as unlicensed gambling rather than financial trading.
France’s Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) ordered internet service providers on July 16 to block Polymarket, citing addictive mechanics, the absence of self-exclusion tools, and continued French traffic: 578,751 visits from 205,057 unique users in June, despite a ban dating to November 2024. Czechia issued a similar blocking order the same week. Spain blocked both Kalshi and Polymarket in a licensing crackdown in May, and Brazil has banned prediction markets outright, with telecoms regulator Anatel blocking 27 platforms.
Polymarket has also pulled back in Canada, adding Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec to its restricted list on July 6, alongside Ontario.
Prediction markets now have two options in Europe: hold a local licence or block the market. Malta is working on the first EU framework for prediction markets, which would give platforms a licensed route in at least one member state. In Ireland, the High Court threat stays on the table: if either platform’s geoblock slips, Caulfield has said the GRAI will seek orders against both site access and the money behind it.
Source: Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland
