Poland’s licensed sports betting operators pay 12% of turnover in tax rather than a share of gross gaming revenue (GGR), and H2 Gambling Capital projects the sector will produce €1.62 billion in GGR from €5.07 billion in turnover in 2026. That implies a margin of about 32%, well above what operators run in most regulated European markets.
Operators say the margin is a direct consequence of the tax, and that it hands unlicensed sites their main competitive advantage. Online casino channelisation in Poland sits at around 59%, according to local estimates.
A tax regime built after Blackjack-gate
Poland’s framework dates to the 2009 Gambling Act, passed after the scandal known as Blackjack-gate, in which several senior politicians in Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government resigned over leaked recordings that indicated dealings with industry lobbyists to avoid gambling tax rises.
The act set a 12% turnover tax on sports betting for private operators and a 50% GGR tax on casino. Players pay a separate 10% tax on winnings, collected at source by operators.
Reform in 2017 gave state-owned Totalizator Sportowy exclusivity over online casino and over land-based slot machines outside casinos. Online sports betting stayed open to private licensees. The same reform introduced powers to require payment service providers to block transactions to domains on the illegal gambling register, though how well that enforcement works is still disputed.
What a turnover tax does to the product
Because the tax is calculated before winnings are paid, operators carry the uncertainty and price for it. The result reaches customers as worse odds.
“Turnover tax is aggressively anti-customer and always will be. It prevents us offering as fun and as engaging of a product as we’d like to. I think it’s the same for all operators in that market.” Myke Foster, group head of gaming, Fortuna Entertainment Group
Foster says players see and feel the 10% winnings tax, but do not connect the turnover tax to the odds they are offered.
“The GGR margin is very high as the first 12% of turnover goes as tax, so there has to be a high margin to cover that, which makes the product less competitive against illegal operators and generally reduces demand.” Ed Birkin, managing director, H2 Gambling Capital
Hermann Pamminger, secretary general of the European Casino Association, told iGB at the World Gaming Leaders’ Summit that it is “almost impossible” to absorb the Polish tax burden without compromising the online product. He compared it to Germany, where a 5% turnover tax has kept land-based casino operators out of the online licensing system. Poland’s rate is more than double that.
Growth removes the pressure to change
H2 Gambling Capital projects total Polish market GGR of €4.36 billion in 2026, after several consecutive years of double-digit growth. For policymakers, that is the argument against touching anything.
Proposals for a GGR-based model are not new. In a 2021 opinion paper, economist and former finance minister Konrad Raczkowski estimated the 12% turnover tax equates to roughly 55% to 65% of GGR, and argued for replacing it with a GGR rate of 20% to 25%, closer to the European average. On 2026 turnover figures, a 20% GGR rate would cut the state’s take by almost half if the market did not change.
“A shift from 12% turnover tax to 20% of GGR would indeed lead to a big fall in tax revenue. This would be partially offset by market growth as operators would increase the payout or lower the GGR margin, and you’d get more recycling of funds, so turnover would go up substantially.” Ed Birkin, H2 Gambling Capital
Birkin still backs the switch. “You need to balance onshore channelisation with tax generation. This means the optimal rate is going to lead to a reduction in tax generation, but tax should never be the primary motive of regulatory policy.”
Channelisation is the weak point
H2 Gambling Capital puts total online channelisation in Poland at 75.1%. Online sports betting estimates range between 78% and 88%. Online casino, the vertical reserved for the state monopoly, sits far lower at around 59% on local estimates.
A 2024 report by the Warsaw Enterprise Institute estimated that 83% of Polish players held accounts with illegal online casino operators. Zdzisław Kostrubała, vice president of Polish bookmaker STS, told the European Economic Congress last year that Poland’s unregulated sector doubled in size between 2017 and 2025. Similar arguments have driven reform work elsewhere in the region, including Greece’s consultation on a gambling reform bill targeting the black market.
The monopoly holds its ground
Totalizator Sportowy dates to 1955 and contributes around $1.29 billion in annual revenues to the state. Its position is that liberalising online casino would not change the offshore picture.
“Whether we have a monopoly in Poland or not will not affect the black market at all. They will operate as long as they receive money from customers, so the best way to fight the unregulated market is to limit payments.” Radosław Kietliński, board advisor, Totalizator Sportowy
Public opinion supports that position. A 2025 study for the Adam Smith Research Centre found 50% of Poles backed keeping the state monopoly and 16% opposed it. Local outlets reported the study was commissioned by Totalizator Sportowy.
Licensed betting operators read the same market differently.
“Customers want online casino, and the problem we have with markets like Poland, where there is a state monopoly, is that you’re not going to trick the customers that these things don’t exist. Stopping brands like Fortuna, SuperBet, STS, whoever it might be from operating casino products means that you’re actually incentivising customers to look elsewhere.” Myke Foster, Fortuna Entertainment Group
Poland is not alone in reviewing the model. Austria is preparing to end its igaming monopoly under a leaked draft law, and Hungary’s government has opened a review of Szerencsejáték Zrt.
Reform waits on the 2027 election
Neither of Poland’s two largest parties is seen as sympathetic to operator interests. The online casino monopoly was introduced under Law and Justice. Civic Platform approved legislation raising the player winnings tax from 10% to 15%, which President Karol Nawrocki vetoed in 2025 before it took effect.
The hard-right Confederation party is ideologically opposed to state monopolies and high taxes, and Marek Płota, managing partner at Polish law firm RM Legal, told iGB in February that it was the only party carrying liberalisation on its election agenda. Without a larger share of the vote, meaningful legislative change is unlikely.
Gambling also sits low on the national agenda while Poland deals with the war in Ukraine, defence spending and border security.
The next test comes from outside Poland. Finland is preparing to open its monopoly-run online market to licensees next year, and Polish operators are watching whether that launch lands cleanly.
“I really hope that Finland acts as a positive example. There are a couple of others across Europe as well who are considering it or going for it, and I think it would result in a more consolidated push.” Myke Foster, Fortuna Entertainment Group
Until then the two lines on the chart keep rising together: a legal market growing at double digits, and an unregulated one that has doubled in eight years.
Source: H2 Gambling Capital, iGB
