IG Group Holdings has agreed to buy US prediction markets and daily fantasy operator Underdog Sports Holdings for around $1.3 billion, announced alongside first-half results showing revenue up 18% to £642.8 million.
The London-listed trading platform disclosed both on Thursday evening. Total revenue for the six months to 30 June 2026 rose from £545.2 million in the same period of 2025. On an organic continuing basis, revenue increased 17% to £623.7 million from £534.8 million.
IG had guided in early July to an 18% revenue increase to £643 million, with 16% organic growth to £624 million. The reported figures came in at or slightly above that.
Trading revenue outpaces the headline
Net trading revenue rose 21% to £588.8 million from £485.4 million, with organic continuing revenue up 20% to £574.2 million. The gap between total and trading revenue growth reflects interest income, which fell as rates declined and IG passed more of the yield through to customers.
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation rose 4% to £282.0 million from £270.4 million. IG attributed the slower Ebitda growth to that lower interest income, higher spending on products and marketing, and costs tied to the strategic review it announced in March. The review is “now substantially complete,” the company said.
Adjusted earnings per share increased 21% to 68.9 pence. Active customers grew 66% to 843,600. IG returned £221.2 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks during the period, and proposed a 14.46 pence interim dividend.
“This was a strong first half,” said Chief Executive Officer Breon Corcoran. “Faster product velocity, increased marketing at attractive returns and a rapidly growing customer base drove double-digit revenue and adjusted EPS growth.”
IG changed its financial year-end to 31 December from 31 May in November, which makes the current reporting period a calendar half.
What IG is buying
Underdog runs daily fantasy sports contests and, since March 2026, its own federally regulated prediction market exchange. The company acquired Aristotle Exchange DCM and Aristotle Exchange DCO that month, giving it Commodity Futures Trading Commission registrations as a designated contract market and a derivatives clearing organisation. It launched trading on that exchange in mid-July, having previously routed customers to third-party venues.
IG describes Underdog as the third-largest US prediction markets venue by regulated notional volume, behind Kalshi and Robinhood. The acquisition would more than double IG’s US revenue and increase US monthly active customers more than tenfold, according to the company.
“Our proposed acquisition of Underdog announced on 30 July 2026 marks a decisive step in our strategy, establishing IG as a leader in the fast-growing US prediction markets,” Corcoran said.
Deal terms
Total consideration is approximately $1.3 billion: upfront consideration based on an enterprise value of around $1.1 billion, plus an earnout for Underdog shareholders of up to roughly $200 million.
The upfront equity value is about $963 million, paid with around 24.1 million new IG shares and about $380 million in cash. IG will also repay about $160 million of Underdog debt on completion. IG has paused its share buyback programme.
IG expects the transaction to be broadly neutral to adjusted EPS in the first year and accretive by a double-digit percentage by year three. Completion is expected in late 2026 or early 2027, subject to regulatory approvals. Underdog would continue to operate as a standalone commercial unit under its existing brand, management and platform.
Guidance held, Underdog excluded
IG expects full-year results in line with market expectations and left medium-term guidance unchanged excluding Underdog. That guidance includes organic total revenue compound annual growth of at least 10%, measured from a 2025 base of £1.10 billion and excluding Freetrade and Independent Reserve. The company has also guided to net interest income of £110 million to £120 million and Ebitda margins in the mid-40s percentage range.
The strategic case rests on a US market that is still being defined in court and before regulators. Sports event contracts sold on CFTC-registered exchanges sit outside state gambling licensing, and several state regulators have challenged that position. The volume flowing through these venues has reshaped the competitive picture for US sports betting in under two years. Outside the US, the direction has been restrictive: Spain blocked Kalshi and Polymarket in a licensing crackdown in May, and Brazil banned prediction markets outright in April.
Regulatory approvals for the Underdog deal will be sought against that backdrop, with completion pencilled in for late 2026 at the earliest. What IG’s shareholders approve, and what the CFTC and state regulators allow Underdog to keep selling, will determine whether the $1.3 billion buys the US position IG has described.
Source: IG Group Holdings PLC
