Brazil will return to the polls on 25 October for the second round of its presidential election between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL). The same date is set to mark the formal end of federal betting authorisations under Provisional Measure (MP) 1,394/2026, so the runoff and the dismantling of the regulated betting market now share a calendar.
Flávio Bolsonaro finished first on Sunday with 56,104,268 votes, or 47.03% of valid votes, against 53,876,617 (45.16%) for Lula, according to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), with 99.99% of voting machines counted.
The runoff as a vote on the ban
Lula’s government issued MP 1,394 on 25 September, and Lula has made the ban part of his campaign. Speaking in Guarulhos on 18 September, he said:
“We are going to end the bets.”
He returned to the theme on the Flow podcast, saying bets would end no matter who it hurt. A Senate public consultation recorded 478,845 votes backing the measure against 80,387 opposed, though it is an open online tool and not a representative poll.
No other candidate passed 3%. Augusto Cury (Avante), Renan Santos (Missão) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) together took around 7.3% of the vote, according to Senate figures. Lula needs a large share of those voters to close a gap of 2,227,651 votes, and the ban is one of the clearest policy differences between the two campaigns.
Flávio’s position
Flávio Bolsonaro has attacked the measure on process grounds. At São Paulo’s Municipal Market on 28 September, he said the MP created legal uncertainty by changing the sector’s rules mid-campaign, and pointed to its limited lifespan:
“Since the provisional measure lasts only four months, nothing prevents ‘Tigrinho’ from returning with full force later.”
“Tigrinho” is the Brazilian nickname for the Fortune Tiger slot and common shorthand for online casino play. Flávio Bolsonaro has not set out a replacement policy, and he has not said whether he would restore the licensing system created under Law 14,790/2023.
The outgoing Congress decides
An MP takes effect on publication and must be ratified or rejected by Congress within 120 days: an initial 60 days, extendable once for another 60. The first deliberation period for MP 1,394 runs to 23 November, and lawmakers had filed more than 100 amendments by 2 October, including proposals to restore sports betting, protect club sponsorships and compensate operators.
The first vote therefore falls to the outgoing Congress, including lawmakers who lost their seats on Sunday. Deputies and senators elected this weekend take office on 1 February 2027, and the next president is inaugurated on 5 January 2027. Because the constitutional clock pauses during the congressional recess from 23 December, an extended MP could still be pending when the new Congress is sworn in.
Bolsonaro’s party in Congress
The presidency is still open, but BBC News reported that Bolsonaro’s PL is expected to hold a majority in Congress, as the party has had the most governors, senators and federal deputies elected so far.
Alongside the president, Brazilian voters elected state parliamentarians, 27 state governors, all 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies and 54 members of the 81-seat Senate.
That balance of power matters for online gambling, which was banned in a provisional measure that Congress must ratify or reject within 120 days. A Congress where the PL holds the most influence gives opposition lawmakers room to let MP 1,394 lapse, amend it heavily, or wait for a new administration before voting.
Before the question of whether the measure is confirmed, the sector needs answers to two others: who the next president is, and how the new Congress is made up once the final seat counts are published.
What operators face now
The election does not change the immediate timetable. Licensed sites must be offline from 6 October. Operators paid R$30 million per licence under the 2023 framework, and the MP does not refund those fees.
The Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming (IBJR) and the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL) have asked the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to suspend the measure, and that request is pending. The Attorney General’s Office (AGU) has separately sued 17 licensed operators for more than R$1 billion.
If Congress converts MP 1,394 into law, the ban stands whoever wins on 25 October, and a reversal would need new legislation. If it lapses, the 2023 licensing law applies again, and the status of authorisations ended under the MP would fall to the next government and Congress to settle.
Source: Superior Electoral Court (TSE)
