Justice Luiz Fux of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) could rule on suspending the fixed-odds betting ban as soon as the player withdrawal window closes at 23:59 tonight, 5 October. His decision sets the terms for PL 5,502/2026, the bill filed on 1 October that would require operators to refund every bettor’s net loss.
The bill has not moved since Federal Deputy Ricardo Abrão (PSDB-RJ) presented it to the Chamber of Deputies’ directing board (Mesa). It has no committee, no rapporteur and no processing regime. Its justification rests on Provisional Measure (MP) 1,394 of 25 September, which banned fixed-odds betting and ordered the regulated market closed.
What sits with Fux
Fux is rapporteur on the challenges to Law 14,790/2023, the law that opened the regulated market on 1 January 2025. In those cases, the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL) and the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR) asked him to suspend MP 1,394 until Congress decides on it or the court rules. ANJL also filed its own action, ADI 8,027, on 28 September.
Fux gave the Attorney General’s Office (AGU) 72 hours to respond to the industry’s request, and the government expects a ruling at any point after tonight’s deadline, according to Metrópoles.
The AGU has taken the opposite line. In a 2 October filing in ADI 7,749, Attorney General Jorge Messias asked the STF to strike down the core of both betting laws, reversing the position the AGU took in October 2024.
Municipalities have also gone to court. The National Association of Mayors and Vice-Mayors (ANPV) filed ADI 8,028 on 29 September, seeking annulment of the MP or, as an alternative, a 180-day transition.
Balances before the deadline
Bettors had withdrawn R$652.6 million from operators since the ban took effect on 26 September, according to Ministry of Finance figures reported by O Globo on 2 October. Another R$1.453 billion remained on the platforms, spread across 28.65 million CPF (taxpayer number) accounts.
Together those figures come to about R$2.1 billion, above the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank estimate quoted in Abrão’s justification, which put balances and prizes owed at around R$1.7 billion for more than 22 million bettors.
Under the MP, balances still on the platforms after tonight go back through the banking system. Operators have two days after going offline to secure liquidity and notify their financial institutions, which then have seven days to complete the refunds. Missed refunds carry daily fines of R$200,000.
Two outcomes for the bill
If Fux suspends the MP
Licensed sites could stay online and balances would remain in player accounts. The closure that PL 5,502 cites as its basis would be on hold, and the bill would apply to operators that are still authorised and trading. Any interim order from a single justice would still need confirmation by the full court.
If the MP stands
Sites go dark on 6 October and authorisations lapse on 25 October, with no refund of the R$30 million each operator paid for its five-year licence. The MP’s refund mechanism covers money still in accounts. PL 5,502 targets money already lost: deposits minus withdrawals, corrected for inflation from each payment date, with no start date for the bets it covers.
The bill does not estimate what that would cost. The AGU’s own filing gives a sense of scale: it estimated the net outflow from family budgets to betting at R$62.5 billion in 2025 alone. PL 5,502 places the cost on operators, with joint liability for controllers, administrators, group companies and successors, and states that licence revocation or bankruptcy would not extinguish claims.
Industry position
ANJL and IBJR argue the government did not show the relevance and urgency the Constitution requires for a provisional measure, and that the ban breaks paid, fixed-term authorisations that took effect less than two years ago.
“We are facing flagrant contradictions on the part of the public authorities,” said Plínio Lemos Jorge, President of ANJL.
bet365 told The iGaming Europe it supports the trade bodies’ legal challenges.
“This decree is unconstitutional and will only serve to push customers away from the regulated sector to the unsafe illegal black market online which pays no tax and has no standards on responsible gaming,” a bet365 spokesperson said.
As of 5 October, ANJL, IBJR and licensed operators had not commented publicly on PL 5,502.
What comes next
The Mesa still has to send PL 5,502 to committees. Congress has 60 days, extendable once by 60, to convert MP 1,394 into law, and according to ANPV’s filing, review will not start before 9 November because of the election calendar. Most bills still pending when the legislature ends in January 2027 are archived.
A suspension from Fux would keep the regulated market open while Congress decides. A refusal would leave operators facing licence lapse on 25 October and, if PL 5,502 advances, claims on bettors’ net losses with no start date.
Source: Supreme Federal Court (STF), Ministry of Finance
