US sportsbooks are forecast to handle $2.9 billion in wagers on the 2026 FIFA World Cup, more than double the $1.3 billion in soccer handle recorded across June and July 2025, according to H2 Gambling Capital.
The Forecasts
Two independent research firms have converged on near-identical US figures. H2 Gambling Capital projects $2.9 billion in handle at American sportsbooks, while Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) puts its base case at $2.82 billion — a tight alignment that analysts say reflects the same underlying market dynamics being read in the same direction.
EKG’s upside scenario takes the US figure as high as $4.3 to $4.4 billion if the US national team exceeds expectations, which would surpass the $3 billion wagered on the 2026 NCAA tournament and the approximately $1.7 billion bet on Super Bowl LX between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks, according to gambling industry reporter Chris Altruda, who used state revenue reports to compile his estimate.
Globally, H2 Gambling Capital estimates $60 billion will be wagered through legal sportsbooks during the tournament — a 71% increase on 2022 and 185% above 2018. Operator gross revenue from that volume is projected at approximately $7.5 billion, based on a 12.5% hold estimate that reflects the continued growth of parlay and bet builder wagering, which carries materially higher margins than straight match wagers. H2 is explicit that the expanded 48-team format is not the primary growth engine: expanded legalization, maturing regulated markets, and deeper product adoption account for the bulk of the increase.
North America and the Host Nation Effect
H2 projects that the three North American host nations — the US, Canada, and Mexico — will combine for $5.7 billion, or roughly 9.5% of the global legal handle. The US leads at $2.9 billion, Mexico follows at $2.5 billion, and Canada contributes $300 million. That North American share, despite hosting the tournament, illustrates how dominant European and Latin American regulated markets remain in absolute volume terms.
For US operators, the timing advantage is material. All matches take place within North American time zones, removing a scheduling barrier that suppressed casual engagement during previous tournaments held in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. The 104-match schedule — up from 64 in 2022 — also expands the available betting inventory across the five-week event.
“In general, the summer tends to be quieter. Injecting the World Cup into it totally reshapes the field of sports for the summer,” Greg Karamitis, EVP and GM of sports for DraftKings, told ESPN.
EKG projects DraftKings and FanDuel will hold a combined 70% share of US World Cup handle, with roughly $1.02 billion going to DraftKings and $945 million to FanDuel. DraftKings is offering sports products in all 50 states for the first time during the tournament, following its nationwide expansion through prediction markets and other content channels.
Brazil: A First-Time Legal World Cup
One factor underpinning H2’s global growth projection is Brazil, included in the firm’s regulated market estimates for the first time following the country’s fixed-odds betting framework opening in 2025. Brazil’s regulated betting market opened at the start of 2025, meaning millions of Brazilian bettors will be able to legally place online wagers on a World Cup match for the first time — a cohort H2 analysts expect to include a significant number of first-time bettors engaging around the national team’s run.
Oren Dalal, publisher of GamingMarkets.com, said the tournament will function as the first major stress test of Brazil’s regulated framework: operators, payment infrastructure, and responsible gambling tools will all face a concentrated volume event of a scale the market has not yet encountered in its short regulated life.
Prediction Markets Add a Parallel Layer
Alongside traditional sportsbooks, prediction markets are positioning for a meaningful share of World Cup trading volume. DeFi Rate projects more than $2.5 billion could be traded on the tournament across US prediction platforms. Kalshi’s expansion into 140+ countries and its record $1 billion in Super Bowl trading volume earlier this year indicate the sector’s capacity to absorb major sports events at scale.
FIFA named ADI Predictstreet as its official prediction market partner through a multi-year agreement in April 2026, though the company ran into regulatory complications shortly after the announcement, underscoring the jurisdictional complexity still surrounding prediction market products in North American markets.
Operator Outlook
For sportsbook operators, the financial stakes extend beyond handle figures. Soccer typically accounts for around 5% of US betting handle in a normal year, per H2 data. The World Cup’s home-soil context is expected to structurally shift that share for the duration of the tournament, drawing in casual bettors who would not ordinarily engage with the sport. Whether that lifts the sport’s baseline share once the tournament ends is a question operators and analysts are watching closely.
H2’s $60 billion figure covers regulated channels only. The firm notes that including offshore and grey-market activity would push true global handle well above $100 billion, making the legal number a floor rather than a ceiling. Italy’s absence from the tournament — a significant European wagering market — is already factored into H2’s estimate as a downside variable. Early exits by other major betting markets, including England, France, or Brazil, would act as a further drag on total handle as the knockout rounds progress. The tournament runs from 11 June to 19 July, with the final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. North American regulators have been watching the intersection of sports events and prediction market compliance closely heading into the tournament.
Source: H2 Gambling Capital, Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, ESPN
