Gibraltar’s Gambling Commissioner Andrew Lyman has rejected claims that the territory’s gambling sector is in terminal decline, as operators on the Rock run redundancy consultations in the wake of the UK’s increase in Remote Gaming Duty (RGD) to 40%.
In a LinkedIn post, Lyman said falling employment numbers reflect operators cutting costs, adding automation and rolling out AI, and that licensing interest in Gibraltar has held up. He also pushed back at critics of the jurisdiction, saying some of them are based in Gibraltar itself.
“Those that write off Gibraltar as a tier 1 gambling hub (and some of the doomsayers are within the jurisdiction) are wrong. The Model is under pressure, but far from spent.”
Redundancies on the Rock
Lyman opened the post by addressing staff affected by the cuts.
“Firstly my sympathies go out to those gambling sector employees that are going through redundancy consultations. This experience is not nice and I hope all effected individuals find an outcome that is good for them and their families.”
Several operators with Gibraltar teams have announced cuts this year. Lottoland has consulted 270 Gibraltar employees on redundancies, a move linked mainly to a lost legal case in Germany. bet365 has put 40 roles across Malta and Gibraltar at risk, part of 340 cuts across the business.
Lyman said the cumulative effect of media stories about multi-jurisdictional redundancies “can cast a cloud over the Rock”, but that he does not read a downward trend in headcount as a sign the sector is finished.
The UK tax shock
The pressure on Gibraltar comes mostly from London. The UK’s Remote Gaming Duty rose from 21% to 40% of gross profits on 1 April 2026, and remote betting duty is set to rise from 15% to 25% in 2027.
Gibraltar is more exposed to that change than any other licensing hub. Online gaming accounts for around 30% of the territory’s GDP and directly employs more than 3,400 people in a population of about 34,000, according to figures reported by iGaming Business. Gibraltar-licensed operators generate roughly a third of total UK gambling tax receipts.
Nigel Feetham, Gibraltar’s Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, warned when the rise was announced that “the effective tax rate will increase to between 80% and 100%” for some operators. Lyman himself predicted “significant redundancies” in marketing, customer operations and risk management once the new rate took effect.
The UK rate applies to UK customers wherever an operator is based, so relocating out of Gibraltar does not reduce it. That limits how far the Rock can shield its licensees, and it puts more weight on how Gibraltar positions itself for non-UK business. Our breakdown of the UK iGaming market in 2026 sets out the scale of the revenue these operators are competing for.
Costs, automation and AI
Lyman said the UK tax environment is only one of the reasons operators are cutting back.
“For reasons already heavily trailed, but for other reasons beyond the UK tax environment, operators are sharpening their approach to costs, driving efficiencies in their business and increasing automation and implementation of AI. External factors may have accelerated this efficiency drive, but in an increasingly competitive environment there is no room for complacency.”
He added that “the level of disruption and consolidation is not over”, which suggests the Commissioner expects further restructuring in the sector. Regulators elsewhere are also adjusting to AI in operations, with the Malta Gaming Authority recently publishing a voluntary AI charter for its licensees.
Lyman said most Gibraltar operators are trying to limit the local impact of their cuts, “as much as they can”.
Licensing interest
The Commissioner’s case rests on what he sees from inside the Gambling Division. He said there is continued interest in Gibraltar licences across traditional B2C, B2B and “derivative models”, and described the sector as one that “remains vibrant”.
He also said the move to the new Gambling Act has given the regulator a chance to consult the industry in detail, and that the Act “has not undermined jurisdictional competitiveness”.
Prediction markets
The clearest example of the derivative models Lyman refers to is prediction markets. On 14 July 2026, Gibraltar enacted the Prediction Market Regulations 2026 under the Gambling Act 2025, a dedicated regime that the government has described as the first of its kind.
Regulation 4(3) states that prediction market activity will not be classified as betting, gaming or lottery purely because of its prediction market features. Licensees must put in place controls against market manipulation, insider trading, wash trading and collusive trading, along with conflict-of-interest policies and anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing measures.
Two operators, ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire, received approvals ahead of the framework, in March and June 2026 respectively. The regime gives Gibraltar a licensing line that does not depend on UK B2C gaming revenue.
Tax and the Treaty
Gibraltar’s local tax rates remain low. The territory applies a gambling duty capped at £425,000 a year and corporate income tax of 15% on profits. For business outside the UK, that is the cost base operators set against other hubs.
Lyman listed further advantages for the jurisdiction.
“Gibraltar remains an attractive licensing hub with a number of USPs. The Treaty enhances the offering and the residency requirements are supported by an underlying principle to support the sector.”
The Treaty refers to the UK-EU agreement on Gibraltar’s future relationship with the EU, which is expected to ease movement across the border with Spain for the cross-frontier workers the sector relies on.
What happens next
Lyman argued that individual headlines “over simplify a much more nuanced sectoral landscape” and that positive and negative factors “need to be weighed in the balance”.
“Like the jurisdiction, the sector will have cloudy days, days that are uncomfortable and days of uncertainty. However, it would be wrong to suggest that it is all downside and that the sun will never come out again.”
The next test is the 2027 rise in UK remote betting duty to 25%, which will add pressure on the sportsbook side of Gibraltar’s licensees. How quickly the prediction market regime converts approvals into live, revenue-generating businesses, and whether new B2B and derivative licensees can offset lost B2C headcount, will decide whether the Commissioner’s reading of the sector holds.
Source: Gibraltar Gambling Commissioner
