Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said the Brazil betting ban is already lifting the economy, in his first national radio and TV address since winning a fourth term, broadcast on the evening of 8 November 2026.
The claim rests on supermarket data that rose after licensed sites went offline in early October, while operators say the figures do not isolate the effect of the ban. Lula’s words leave little room for the pre-ban market to return in full before Congress votes on Provisional Measure (MP) 1,394/2026.
The full text of the address was published on 9 November by the Workers’ Party (PT) bench in the Senate. All quotes from the address are translated from Portuguese.
What Lula said in the address
Lula opened with the 2026 election, thanking voters for “more than 64 million votes” and accusing big tech companies of trying to interfere in the campaign by giving millions of views to disinformation.
The second block covered household finances: income tax cut to zero for people earning up to R$5,000 a month, the end of the six-day working week without a pay cut, zero tax on the basic food basket from 2027 and a bill sent to Congress to scrap weekend public transport fares. He also said the government will “buy families’ debt from the banks” and forgive micro-entrepreneurs’ debts to the federal government.
The third block was security and the state: an MP to create a Ministry of Public Security after Congress approved the public security constitutional amendment, a call for political and judicial reform, and a warning that the public debt trajectory and high interest rates worry him, with the fiscal rules kept.
Betting took three sentences, placed in the household-finance block directly after the transport fare proposal. Lula did not mention the Supreme Federal Court (STF) case or the MP by number.
Lula’s three lines on bets
He tied the ban to the economy first:
The end of the bets is already having a positive impact on the economy.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, President, Federative Republic of Brazil, in a national address on 8 November (translated from Portuguese)
He then set out the mechanism, from household budgets to retail and factories:
Without spending on betting, families have increased their consumption, shops are selling more, industry is producing more, and the wheels of the economy are turning again.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, President, Federative Republic of Brazil (translated from Portuguese)
His last line on the subject ruled out a return:
The bets destroyed lives and must stay in the past, like the nightmare from which Brazil has finally woken up.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, President, Federative Republic of Brazil (translated from Portuguese)
It is the second time in three weeks that Lula has closed the door: on 22 October he told a YouTube live broadcast that betting “won’t come back”.
Is the Brazil betting ban lifting consumption?
Partly supported. Supermarket sales rose in the weeks after operators went offline, and Pix transfers fell. No published survey separates the ban from income, inflation and welfare changes in the same weeks, and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) has not yet released October retail or industrial output data.
Real food consumption rose 6.5% in the week of 5 to 11 October and 6.3% in the week of 12 to 18 October against the same weeks of 2025, according to the weekly survey of the Brazilian Supermarket Association (Abras) reported by O Globo on 4 November. Márcio Milan, Vice-President of Abras, said the rise is “largely related to the ban on bets”. Abras President João Galassi told AFP the money “is already returning to food, debt repayment and families’ needs”.
At the STF public hearing on 3 November, Abras added a 5.4% rise for the third week and said Pix transfers fell 10% in the first three days of the ban, citing Central Bank data. Abras also told the court that more than R$1bn was refunded to bettors in October and that the Bolsa Família increase only took effect on 19 October. The Ministry of Finance’s Deputy Secretary for Fiscal Policy told the same hearing that Pix and commerce “already seem to be reacting”.
The licensed industry reads the same data differently. The Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming (IBJR) said Abras’s own survey showed sales up 7.9% in the week of 14 to 20 September, before the ban. It also said net betting spend of about R$37bn in 2025 equals less than 0.5% of household consumption of R$8.1 trillion, using Finance Ministry and IBGE figures, and that a fall in Pix transfers does not show where the money went. Plínio Lemos Jorge, President of the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL), pointed to the IPCA-15 inflation preview falling from 0.7% in September to 0.38% in October and to the 15% Bolsa Família increase.
| Lula’s claim | Data available | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Families increased consumption | Abras food consumption +6.5%, +6.3%, +5.4% in three October weeks | Rise confirmed, cause not isolated |
| Money left betting | Pix transfers -10% in first three days (Central Bank, via Abras) | Confirmed for the first days |
| Shops sell more | Supermarket survey only; IBGE October retail data not out | Partly supported |
| Industry produces more | IBGE October industrial output not out | Not verifiable yet |
Source: Abras weekly survey and STF hearing statements, October to November 2026; IBGE publication status as of 10 November 2026.
Why a full return looks unlikely
The address aired hours before STF Justice Luiz Fux, on the morning of 9 November, suspended all lower-court cases on the ban at the request of the Prosecutor General’s Office. The suspension needs the STF plenary’s confirmation, and the constitutional challenges to the MP are still pending.
In Congress, MP 1,394/2026 has been in the urgency regime since 9 November, so it takes priority over other votes in the house where it sits, according to the MP’s page on the Congress website. The joint committee that must review it is still awaiting installation, and about 100 amendments have been filed. The government has set 20 December as its target for the vote.
Seven of those amendments would keep sports betting legal and limit the ban to online casino games, O Globo reported on 8 October. They were filed by deputies Marcos Braz (PSDB-RJ), Julio Lopes (PP-RJ), Pedro Aihara (PP-MG), Felipe Francischini (Podemos-PR) and Julio Arcoverde (PP-PI), and senators Marcos Pontes (PL-SP) and Dr. Hiran (PP-RR).
With the president calling bets a nightmare Brazil has woken up from, days after a 64-million-vote win, a return of the full pre-ban market of sports betting and online casino looks unlikely during his fourth term. A sportsbook-only regime through those amendments is the main route left for a partial return, and it depends on the committee and floor votes.
Next steps
- 23 November: the MP’s first 60-day term ends; it can be extended once by 60 days, and the parliamentary recess from 23 December pauses the count.
- 20 December: the government’s target date for the vote in Congress.
- STF plenary: confirmation of the 9 November suspension, then a ruling on the challenges to the MP.
- December: IBGE’s October retail and industrial output figures, the first official test of Lula’s claim.
- 5 January 2027: Lula’s fourth term begins.
Source: Presidency of the Republic of Brazil
