The Associação Nacional de Jogos e Loterias (ANJL) has questioned the evidence behind President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s push to prohibit or restrict fixed-odds betting, arguing that cutting legal supply would move bettors to clandestine platforms rather than remove demand.
The association said it recognises the need to treat problem gambling, indebtedness and the protection of vulnerable people seriously, and that the regulated sector supports continuous improvement of supervision and of the prevention and protection mechanisms available to bettors. Its objection is to the basis on which prohibition is being argued.
Questions over the evidence
ANJL asked whether the experiences being used to inform the debate took place before or after fixed-odds betting was regulated, and whether the platforms involved were licensed or clandestine. Experiences that predate regulation, with no identification of the type of platform used, should not be used to justify prohibiting or restricting the current regulated market, according to the association.
The question points at the accounts Lula has cited in public. Speaking in Guarulhos on 18 September, the president said he had recently met people with gambling problems while filming campaign material, and referred to debts running past R$2 million. He said he intends to end betting in Brazil if re-elected.
“This business that ending the bets will end football is nonsense. We are going to end the bets and we are going to end money laundering, the crookedness and the thieving.” (translated from Portuguese)
Supply, demand and the illegal market
ANJL argues that a reduction in legal supply would not necessarily eliminate demand for betting. Part of the consumer base would migrate to illegal platforms, in the association’s assessment, with the effect concentrated among more vulnerable groups. A policy written to protect those consumers would then move them into environments that carry none of the same controls.
In the regulated market, the association points to obligations on companies, state supervision, identification of bettors, responsible gambling tools and control mechanisms. Clandestine operations are not subject to those same state rules.
Excessive restriction would therefore transfer part of the activity to an environment with less capacity for supervision and for preventing indebtedness, ANJL said. The second effect it identified is the economic strengthening of structures that operate outside the law. Regulators elsewhere are working on the same enforcement gap, with Germany’s Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL) seeking faster powers against illegal gambling.
ANJL calls for tighter supervision
Public policy aimed at combating indebtedness should not result in expanding the environments where bettors have fewer protection mechanisms, the association said. It also questioned the transfer of economic activity to operators that do not follow state rules.
The main problem lies in activity that escapes regulation, according to ANJL, which called for stronger control mechanisms over the licensed sector instead. ANJL president Plínio Lemos Jorge said in December that the main challenge for 2026 would be tackling clandestine sites.
Two provisional measures on the table
Lula met ministers on 23 September to weigh two versions of a provisional measure. The narrower text targets online casino and slot-style games while leaving sports betting in place. The broader text would prohibit online casino and sports betting platforms. Neither had been formally chosen at the time of the meeting, which was attended by Miriam Belchior (Casa Civil), Sidônio Palmeira (Social Communication), Dario Durigan (Finance) and Bruno Moretti (Planning and Budget).
Fixed-odds betting was regulated under Law 14.790/2023, with licensed operators trading from 1 January 2025 under the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA) at the Finance Ministry. A provisional measure takes effect on publication, but lapses unless Congress approves it within 60 days, extendable once by a further 60. That deadline puts the National Congress, not the Planalto, in the deciding seat on any ban.
ANJL said it remains available to the Federal Government and the National Congress to contribute to improving the regulation of fixed-odds betting, with a focus on responsibility, transparency, consumer protection and combating illegality. Which text Lula signs, if he signs one, and whether Congress lets it stand, will decide whether a licensed market less than two years old keeps its scope or loses a vertical.
Source: ANJL
