Brazil’s licensed betting operators asked the Supreme Federal Court (STF) on 3 November to suspend Provisional Measure (MP) 1,394/2026, arguing that the betting ban breaks legal certainty, keeps R$30m licence fees without compensation and pushes bettors to illegal sites. Justice Luiz Fux closed the hearing without a ruling.
Key points:
- Operators accepted Fux’s view that the Constitution gives no right to operate betting.
- The IBJR asked for an injunction suspending the MP until Congress votes on it.
- Anseja put the tax revenue at stake at R$12.7bn or more, about double the MP’s own estimate.
The hearing, in Direct Action of Unconstitutionality (ADI) 8027, filed by the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL), heard 34 bodies; the clubs are in our coverage of all 34 speakers. Quotes are translated from Portuguese and were transcribed by The iGaming Europe from the STF’s broadcast. Unconfirmed names are credited by role.
Operators accept there is no right to operate
Fux opened the day by replaying his earlier vote stating that there is no constitutionally protected fundamental right to operate games of chance. The ANJL’s representative said the association agreed.
The industry’s case rested on four other grounds: legal certainty, the lack of urgency required for a provisional measure, fees kept without compensation, and lost tax while illegal sites keep running. The MP, signed on 25 September, extinguished licences 30 days after publication with no refund of the fee, in whole or in part, and no compensation from the state, according to the Senate’s summary of the measure.
ANJL: a regulated market cut short
There is a mistaken premise, Justice Luiz Fux. A mistaken premise because several government authorities […] start from the premise that prohibition means the absence of gambling.
Representative, National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL)
The LENAD III survey’s figure of 11 million people with potential gambling disorder dates from 2023, before regulation, and covers all forms of gambling, the ANJL’s representative said. Betting grew from a R$2bn market in 2013, according to Folha de S.Paulo, to R$28bn in 2023 and a regulated R$37bn in 2025, he said.
Operators filed more than 100 documents each for authorisation and paid R$30m apiece, almost R$3bn in total, the ANJL said. Ministry of Finance data for the latest three months showed betting volume down 32%, and more than 60% of the market was licensed before the ban, according to the association.
It was a successful process, which was interrupted, in violation of legal certainty, by Provisional Measure 1,394.
Representative, National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL)
IBJR: where is the urgency
The Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming (IBJR) made one request: an injunction suspending the MP until Congress votes on it or the STF rules on the merits of ADI 8027 and the related cases. Congress chose regulated betting after years of debate, and the MP undid that choice overnight, disregarding acquired rights and contracts, its representative said.
Where is the urgency, Minister? What urgency did the government have to suddenly change what was moving, steadily and quickly, northwards, and turn south?
Representative, Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming (IBJR)
…to place the National Congress before a fait accompli, because, when Congress comes to examine this measure, all the damage it could cause will have been caused.
Representative, Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming (IBJR)
Nobody at the hearing said how clandestine gambling would end, the representative said. The IBJR has flagged 60,477 illegal betting sites since the ban took effect.
Anseja: the tax bill and the refunds
The National Association for Legal Certainty in Games and Betting (Anseja) asked the court to uphold ADI 8024, which seeks the full suspension of the MP or a transition of at least 180 days, according to the STF’s account of the filing.
The MP’s explanatory statement estimated a tax revenue loss of R$1.54bn in 2026 and R$5.15bn in 2027, according to a Senate technical note on the MP. Ana Sofia Signorelli, speaking for Anseja, said the 2027 budget bill expected about R$6.7bn from fixed-odds betting, and that federal revenue from the sector ran at about R$1.2bn a month from January to August 2026. Five more months at that rate brings the total to at least R$12.7bn, “basically double”, Signorelli said.
Prohibition does not make the activity disappear; it makes the activity stop being taxed.
Ana Sofia Signorelli, Representative, National Association for Legal Certainty in Games and Betting (Anseja)
Refund claims for licence fees could reach R$1.6bn, plus lost profits, Anseja said. The MP keeps the Caixa state lotteries, which retain about 66% of stakes against about 17.7% for fixed-odds betting, she said. In 2025 the regulated market sent R$4.5bn to public policies and paid almost R$10bn in federal taxes, according to the association.
When it comes to games, Your Excellency, the first rule is that the house cannot change the rules in the middle of the game. Today, the victim is the gaming and betting sector. Which sector will be the victim tomorrow?
Ana Sofia Signorelli, Representative, National Association for Legal Certainty in Games and Betting (Anseja)
Economists, AIGaming and the states
Eric Brasil, Director of Regulation and Public Policy at LCA Consultoria Econômica, speaking for the Brazilian Association of Economic Freedom (ABLE), said regulated betting’s R$37bn in 2025 was less than 0.5% of household consumption, while families paid almost R$700bn in interest. Brasil found no causal link between regulated betting and default.
But that the illegal sector is seeing a market opportunity, it is.
Eric Brasil, Director of Regulation and Public Policy, LCA Consultoria Econômica, for the Brazilian Association of Economic Freedom (ABLE)
The International Gaming Association (AIGaming) cited the LENAD III survey: more than 90% of players bet recreationally and 0.8% develop gambling disorder.
The Brazilian Association of State Lottery Concessionaires and Permit Holders (Abracopel), represented by Cesar Rezende, called the MP an “abuse of state power” that overrides the states’ lottery competence recognised by the STF in ADPFs 492 and 493.
The provisional measure revoked eight authorisations of the State of Paraíba, eight authorisations of the State of Rio de Janeiro, two authorisations of the State of Maranhão.
Cesar Rezende, Representative, Brazilian Association of State Lottery Concessionaires and Permit Holders (Abracopel)
The National Association of Mayors and Deputy Mayors (ANPV), which filed ADI 8028, said the MP breaks federalism and was signed nine days before the first round of the election on 4 October. It asked for a suspension until the full court rules, with a transition and compensation.
Electoral convenience is not constitutional urgency.
Representative, National Association of Mayors and Deputy Mayors (ANPV)
The government’s reply
The National Secretary of Public Security said police ran 236 operations between January 2022 and September 2026, with more than 480 arrests and court orders totalling R$17.8bn.
And many of these operations hit regulated platforms, platforms that had a licence. In other words, regulation did not protect society.
National Secretary of Public Security, Ministry of Justice and Public Security
The Ministry of Finance’s Deputy Secretary for Fiscal Policy said about R$62bn moved from families to the betting sector and that the tax lost exceeds what regulation collects. Health Minister Alexandre Padilha said no country that legalised betting improved its health indicators.
Fux stopped the ANJL from playing a video on how easily an illegal site can be reached.
given that the measure is still in force, I understand that this demonstration is unlawful.
Luiz Fux, Justice and rapporteur, Supreme Federal Court (STF)
Next steps
Fux closed the hearing on the evening of 3 November with no ruling, no injunction and no date for judgment. Courts sometimes “decide not to decide” and return a question to its proper forum, he said, adding that he does not close the door to a later hearing. The IBJR’s and the ANPV’s injunction requests went unanswered, and the MP stays in force.
In Congress, the MP starts to block the agenda on 9 November and its first 60-day term ends on 23 November. The government wants a vote by 20 December.
Source: Supreme Federal Court (STF)
