Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential runoff on 25 October 2026 with more than 51% of the vote against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 48%, according to Al Jazeera. The result keeps the Brazil betting ban in the hands of the president who signed it, with Congress and the Supreme Federal Court (STF) still to decide its future.
The runoff fell on the same day the 85 federal betting authorisations lapsed under Provisional Measure (MP) 1.394/2026. Each licence cost R$30m, or R$2.55bn in total, and the MP provides no refund.
How the runoff was decided
Lula entered the second round behind. In the first round on 4 October, Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party (PL) candidate, took 47.03% and Lula 45.16%, according to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), a gap of 2.2 million votes. About 33.4 million registered voters abstained, roughly 21% of the electorate.
Polling stations were due to close at 17:00 Brasília time on 25 October. Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered them to stay open two more hours, until 19:00, after both campaigns asked for an extension, Al Jazeera reported. Flávio Bolsonaro briefly led as ballots were counted. Electoral authorities declared Lula the winner on the night of 25 October with 98.76% of ballots counted.
Flávio Bolsonaro did not concede. He told supporters that “it is impossible to recognise the results of the election” and said he would seek to annul the vote, blaming the extended hours for confusion at polling stations. Lula said in his victory speech that “the election was a defeat for denialism.” His fourth term starts with the inauguration on 5 January 2027.
What Lula has said about betting
Lula signed MP 1.394/2026 on 25 September. It amends Law 14.790/2023, which opened the federal regulated market on 1 January 2025, and bans the operation, offer, intermediation and advertising of fixed-odds betting, covering sports bets and online games, online and in person. Other lottery products are excluded. Deposits stopped on publication, withdrawals closed at 23:59 on 5 October and licensed sites went offline on 6 October.
Three days before the runoff, Lula ruled out any return on a YouTube live broadcast with federal deputy André Janones, as The iGaming Europe reported on 23 October.
And I can tell you, Nath: betting won’t come back. Whoever wants to make money, go to work.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, President, Federative Republic of Brazil, on a YouTube live broadcast (translated from Portuguese)
He had first called for a ban on online betting platforms in April. The government’s explanatory memorandum, published by the Chamber of Deputies, puts the federal revenue loss at R$1.541bn in 2026 and R$5.150bn in 2027. The Attorney General’s Office (AGU) cited an official estimate that betting took R$62.5bn from household budgets in 2025.
Flávio Bolsonaro campaigned on a narrower line. On 7 October he called for “a very honest distinction” between sports betting and online casino games, without saying which products would stay, as The iGaming Europe reported.
The Senate vote
An MP takes effect on publication but lapses unless Congress converts it into law within 60 days, extendable once by 60 days, under Article 62 of the Constitution. The first period ends on 23 November, and the parliamentary recess from 23 December pauses the count. The MP enters the urgency regime on 9 November, when it starts to block other votes in the house that holds it, according to the National Congress page for MP 1.394/2026.
A joint committee of deputies and senators examines the MP first, then the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate vote on it in turn. Each house can approve the text, amend it through a conversion bill or reject it. The current Congress votes on it: deputies and senators elected in October take their seats on 1 February 2027.
Three outcomes are on the table for the Senate:
- Approval as signed: the ban becomes permanent law, and the 85 authorisations stay extinguished.
- Approval with amendments: Amendment 38, filed by Senator Hiran Gonçalves, would allow bets on real sports events only, a sportsbook-only market without online casino.
- Rejection or lapse: the ban stops applying, but the extinguished authorisations would not return automatically, according to legal analysts at Migalhas, and Article 62 bars the government from reissuing the same MP in the same legislative session.
The vote falls to the Congress elected in 2022, before the new one is seated. Three of the four executives on The iGaming Europe’s Brazil roundtable expect lawmakers to amend the MP, and Dario Leiman, Partner at iGaming Advisors LATAM, sees sports betting without casino as the likely end point.
What the Supreme Court can decide
Justice Luiz Fux is the rapporteur for the challenges to the MP, including ADI 7721 and ADI 8027. The National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL) and the Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming (IBJR) asked him on 28 September to suspend the whole MP until Congress decides, InfoMoney reported. As fallbacks, they asked for the suspension to cover at least the companies already authorised, or for a six-month wind-down period. Broadcasters’ association Abert and more than 20 football clubs joined the case.
The AGU asked Fux to keep the ban in full and to hear the Prosecutor General before any decision. Fux was expected to rule after the 25 October runoff; no date has been set. An injunction by the rapporteur would then go to the full court for confirmation.
The scenarios for operators:
- Fux suspends the MP: licensed operations could restart while Congress votes, although the authorisations lapsed on 25 October.
- Fux grants a partial measure, such as a wind-down period, without reopening the market.
- Fux rejects the requests: the ban stays in force and Congress decides.
Brazil betting ban timeline
- 9 April 2026: Lula calls for a ban on online betting platforms.
- 25 September: Lula signs MP 1.394/2026; deposits stop.
- 28 September: ANJL and IBJR ask the STF to suspend the MP.
- 4 October: first round; Flávio Bolsonaro 47.03%, Lula 45.16%.
- 6 October: licensed betting sites go offline.
- 22 October: Lula says betting “won’t come back”.
- 25 October: runoff; Lula wins with more than 51%; federal authorisations lapse.
- 9 November: the MP enters the urgency regime in Congress.
- 23 November: the first 60-day period for the MP ends.
- 5 January 2027: Lula’s inauguration.
- 1 February 2027: the new Congress takes office.
Next steps
Fux’s decision on the injunction requests is the next event, with no date set. The joint committee on the MP had not been installed by 25 October, according to the Congress page, and the first deadline is 23 November. The ANJL has said it will work with Congress on changes to the text. More than 3,500 jobs had gone by 7 October, according to an ANJL survey.
Source: Superior Electoral Court (TSE), National Congress
